KNOW THE SECRET HIDDEN IN BETS

This post is a clear example to motivate children in the classroom. For all those curious who find the subject of probability interesting, keep reading...

Why is so popular LOTTO if it is so rare to win it? Why are getting bets more and more common among people? The only thing that I know is that winning playing dices is not just up to luck. Math can always give you a little help but.

In 1903 he played the Christmas Gordo with the number 20297, and 103 years later, in 2006, the same number came out again. It happened also in 1956 and 1978, with the number 15560. The question is, would you play this Christmas at the lottery with a number that had already left previous years? A first impulse would be "to play better another number", arguing that it already played, and also, twice each. And if the number had been one like 01010, we probably would not play either, but for other reasons: it seems unlikely.

There are numbers that at first glance seem more likely, and from other numbers we would say that it is impossible for them to come out in a raffle. On the other hand, there is in many places the tradition of playing the same number each year (with the belief that this increases the odds). Nothing of this is true. Thinking that past events affect futures in relation to random activities, as in many games of chance, is what is known as the player's fallacy.

The fallacy of the player: when the intuition fails

The program tres14 spoke precisely about the phenomenon, how to play the lottery, there are numbers that awaken us more confidence than others. For example, if we had to choose between playing 03333 or 25687, a large majority would opt for the second, when we know that one or the other are equally likely.

The player's fallacy may include several misconceptions. The first is that a random event is more likely to occur because it has not occurred during a certain period. For example, if you flipped a coin 10 times, you may think that it is more likely to cross in the next roll, when in reality, in each coin flip, face and cross are equally likely events.

Another erroneous reasoning is that a random event is less likely to occur if it happened recently. Returning to the example of the lottery, we might think that if for two consecutive years it has touched the same number in our city, it is very unlikely that it will happen again. In fact, we could say every year "the counter is zeroed" as far as probabilities are concerned. The fact that he played the lottery last year does not influence the likelihood that he will play that number again at Christmas this year.

A guy in this video explains if it is possible to know the selected numbers in LOTTO in order to win:

Here´s a video in which the winner of LOTTO for 7 times in his life explains how he did it...

Apparently unlikely events

Would you bet something in a group of 23 people at least 2 years old on the same day? Surely the first intuitive answer is "no". However, knowing that the probability is more than 50%, it might be worth risking. This problem is known as the birthday paradox.

Another example that demonstrates that we must rely more on mathematics than on our own instinct is the well-known problem of Monty Hall. The detailed explanation of why the apparently less likely option actually has twice the probability.

Here´s an example of the problem.

And here´s another example of the Monty Hall problem.